Welcome to Hurricane Forecasting!

NHC Graphical Outlook 2019-08-27 14:39 UTC
NHC Graphical Outlook
14:39 UTC 27 August 2019

As part of the AMS 2020 Annual Meeting Satellite Short Course, we want you to put yourself into the shoes of a National Hurricane Center (NHC) Hurricane Specialist.

As part of your shift at NHC, you will help create Advisory #14.

To be successful, you will need to use satellite imagery and derived products from the GOES-R and JPSS series of satellites that we've discussed in the course.

Your Mission

We will be creating Advisory #14 (5 pm AST forecast; 21 UTC). We are working on two key elements to this forecast:
  1. Locate the latitude and longitude values for the storm center of Tropical Storm Dorian (2019)
  2. Make a 24-hour maximum wind speed (intensity) forecast

Things to consider on your shift

Here are some key takeaways from the Advisory #13 forecast discussion.

  • St. Lucia disrupted the tropical storm's vortex
  • Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance reported that the center of the vortex has been hard to find
  • Dorian is still moving "quickly" through the basin, which could hinder development
  • Dry air appears to be entering the southeast quadrant of the storm
  • Lack of convective organization could mean this storm will fall apart

How to accomplish your mission

As you step through the current products, think about whether the product is good for

  • identifying the center,
  • health of the convection or trends in convection, or
  • not useful in this scenario?

If you are unsure, many of the pages link to Quick Guides. Feel free to explore those or ask.

Keep track and use the information to inform your forecast.