Hurricane Michael

Hurricane Michael has made landfall today, along the Florida Panhandle, between Tyndall Air Force Base, FL and Mexico Beach, Florida. Radar and satellite products observed Michael, as it approached the Florida Panhandle (seen below). Over the last 12 hours, Michael increased in maximum wind speed to 155-mph and had a pressure level of 919-mb.

Radar – Base Reflectivity (Tilt – 0.5 degrees) between 15-17Z, 10 October 2018 (via College of Dupage). Notice the heavy rain bands in the inner and outer core of Hurricane Michael, producing heavy precipitation, and very high wind speeds. 


Blended Total Precipitable Water (TPW) at 1456Z, 10 October 2018. A microwave product that estimates TPW throughout the entire column of the atmosphere. Purple and white colors express high moisture content (i.e. high TPW values, ~2.5-3 inches) that Hurricane Michael encapsulates, which can lead to heavy precipitation and flooding. 

Advected Layered Precipitable Water (ALPW) from 18Z, 9 October 2018 to 15Z, 10 October 2018. Different from the Blended TPW, ALPW estimates precipitable water values in 4 different layers (i.e. refer to 4-panel below: surface-850mb (top-left), 850-700mb (top-right), 700-500mb (bottom-left), and 500-300mb (bottom-right)), where the majority of moisture content is located in the lower layers of the atmosphere (i.e. within 3-km above the surface). GFS model winds are incorporated into the algorithm. Black pixels in the imagery represent precipitating regions, denoted as ‘missing data’. Although microwave retrievals can be made in cloudy regions, they cannot be made in precipitating regions. 


GOES-16, infrared band 13 (10.3 um) at 1634Z, 10 October 2018. Imagery shows Hurricane Michael, on the cusp of landfall, showing a well defined eyewall and cold brightness temperatures (i.e. red to dark-red colors) within the inner and outer core of the hurricane. 

NHC Forecast (below) for the next few days, as of 1 PM CDT update. Hurricane Michael will interact with an upper level trough, and move to the northeast, producing heavy precipitation in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas. The system will be downgraded to a Tropical Storm by Thursday and will eventually move out to sea, by the weekend.

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