*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL952022 09/08/22 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       41%                                 51%

LAT  (deg N)     17.1  17.4  18.1  18.8  19.5  20.3  20.5  21.1  22.5  24.2  26.2  27.6  28.5
LON  (deg W)     37.5  38.7  39.8  40.8  42.2  45.2  48.1  50.1  51.5  51.9  51.8  51.9  51.8
DTL  (km)        2088  2022  2004  1997  1964  1874  1751  1632  1550  1572  1677  1750  1813
TRACK SOURCE     AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   41% is  1.4 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   51% is  1.2 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0    0.8   4.1%       1.0    1.0   6.2%
VORTICITY          1.7    4.3  16.7%       1.4    2.3  19.6%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   21.9  12.2%      18.4   17.5  16.9%
RH                73.1   72.2  -0.2%      70.9   61.9   1.8%
GOES              29.1   31.8   1.5%      29.3   31.8   1.0%
DVORAK             0.8    1.0   6.2%       0.8    1.0   5.8%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 2.1, February 2018