*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL912022 08/30/22 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       54%                                 79%

LAT  (deg N)     14.8  14.8  14.9  15.0  15.1  15.5  16.1  17.2  18.6  20.1  21.6  23.1  24.6
LON  (deg W)     48.0  48.4  49.0  49.5  50.0  51.0  52.4  53.9  55.8  58.0  60.6  63.1  65.4
DTL  (km)        1194  1175  1158  1144  1132  1137  1100  1044  1031   832   646   593   680
TRACK SOURCE     AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   54% is  1.8 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   79% is  1.8 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0    0.1   5.9%       1.0   -0.5  12.6%
VORTICITY          1.7    3.1  14.3%       1.4    2.7  25.6%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3    5.8  22.6%      18.4    7.6  26.1%
RH                73.1   75.4  -0.2%      70.9   74.4   4.0%
GOES              29.1   88.1   4.8%      29.3   88.1   3.4%
DVORAK             0.8    1.0   6.9%       0.8    1.0   6.9%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 2.1, February 2018