*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP102022 08/21/22 06 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       16%                                 18%

LAT  (deg N)     16.8  16.9  16.8  16.8  16.5  15.5  13.9  12.8  12.5  12.4  12.6  12.7  12.8
LON  (deg W)    124.5 125.4 126.4 127.3 128.1 129.4 130.2 131.1 132.2 133.4 134.6 135.7 136.9
DTL  (km)        1548  1615  1693  1758  1842  2019  2208  2365  2476  2419  2294  2170  2048
TRACK SOURCE     AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   16% is  0.4 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   18% is  0.3 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0    1.0   0.6%      -2.0    2.1   0.0%
VORTICITY          1.6    1.2   4.8%       1.5    0.5   3.5%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    9.9   6.2%      14.9   17.4  10.8%
RH                79.1   77.0   3.2%      74.8   72.0   2.5%
GOES              42.9    3.2   0.1%      42.8    3.2   0.2%
DVORAK             0.9    0.5   0.8%       0.9    0.5   0.6%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 2.1, February 2018