*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL952021 11/01/21 18 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       10%                                 13%

LAT  (deg N)     14.4  15.0  15.6  16.2  16.8  17.8  18.8  20.1  21.9  24.0  25.8  27.4  28.7
LON  (deg W)     33.5  34.3  35.4  36.5  37.6  39.1  39.2  38.6  37.3  35.2  33.0  31.2  29.9
DTL  (km)        1721  1804  1921  2040  2057  2027  2110  2251  2104  1886  1687  1559  1495
TRACK SOURCE     AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   10% is  0.3 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   13% is  0.3 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0    0.1   1.9%       1.0    0.2   3.4%
VORTICITY          1.7    0.7   1.8%       1.4    0.1   2.3%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   22.2   4.3%      18.4   26.8   4.9%
RH                73.1   54.7   0.0%      70.9   55.0   0.4%
GOES              29.1   13.0   0.2%      29.3   13.0   0.2%
DVORAK             0.8    1.0   2.2%       0.8    1.0   2.3%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 2.1, February 2018