*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL952021 10/31/21 06 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       41%                                 41%

LAT  (deg N)     10.9  11.4  11.5  11.7  11.9  12.8  14.1  15.8  17.5  19.1  21.3  24.7  29.0
LON  (deg W)     27.1  28.3  29.2  30.2  31.0  32.0  32.6  33.1  33.9  34.4  34.5  33.8  32.3
DTL  (km)        1126  1228  1318  1416  1494  1580  1626  1675  1775  1829  1813  1745  1725
TRACK SOURCE     AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   41% is  1.4 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   41% is  1.0 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -1.9   9.1%       1.0   -0.6  10.1%
VORTICITY          1.7    2.3  10.3%       1.4    1.0  10.3%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3    9.8  18.5%      18.4   16.9  16.0%
RH                73.1   77.8  -0.2%      70.9   67.3   2.3%
GOES              29.1   38.7   1.9%      29.3   38.7   1.1%
DVORAK             0.8    0.5   1.8%       0.8    0.5   1.5%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 2.1, February 2018