*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL902021 09/28/21 18 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       76%                                 83%

LAT  (deg N)      6.6   6.5   7.1   7.7   8.5   9.9  10.9  11.8  13.0  14.7  16.8  19.2  22.2
LON  (deg W)     20.9  22.0  22.4  22.7  23.2  24.5  26.6  28.8  30.8  32.7  34.5  36.2  37.5
DTL  (km)         767   852   835   816   811   877  1076  1266  1448  1633  1831  2013  2121
TRACK SOURCE     AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   76% is  2.5 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   83% is  1.9 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -7.2  25.3%       1.0   -4.2  26.5%
VORTICITY          1.7    3.0  16.8%       1.4    2.7  26.2%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3    7.7  26.1%      18.4   15.1  21.8%
RH                73.1   81.2  -0.2%      70.9   81.0   2.8%
GOES              29.1   86.5   5.7%      29.3   86.5   3.3%
DVORAK             0.8    0.5   2.4%       0.8    0.5   2.0%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 2.1, February 2018