*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP972021 07/17/21 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       67%                                 95%

LAT  (deg N)     14.4  15.0  15.4  15.7  15.9  16.2  16.4  16.6  16.9  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.1
LON  (deg W)    105.5 107.1 108.6 110.0 110.9 112.6 114.3 116.5 119.1 121.5 123.8 125.9 127.8
DTL  (km)         490   531   584   672   735   792   850   975  1126  1289  1475  1641  1772
TRACK SOURCE     AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   67% is  1.5 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   95% is  1.7 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -1.8   5.4%      -2.0   -1.4   9.3%
VORTICITY          1.6    3.4  26.6%       1.5    4.1  39.0%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9   11.9  14.5%      14.9   10.7  30.4%
RH                79.1   86.8   7.8%      74.8   84.0   5.8%
GOES              42.9   52.4  10.4%      42.8   52.4   8.8%
DVORAK             0.9    0.5   2.0%       0.9    0.5   1.5%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 2.1, February 2018