*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL952021 06/27/21 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       29%                                 60%

LAT  (deg N)      9.4   9.8  10.4  10.9  11.0  11.3  11.6  12.1  12.6  13.3  14.2  15.5  16.4
LON  (deg W)     29.0  30.3  31.5  32.8  35.1  39.7  43.5  46.9  50.8  55.1  59.6  64.2  68.8
DTL  (km)        1367  1496  1595  1713  1637  1498  1197  1005   843   698   407   331   189
TRACK SOURCE     AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   29% is  1.0 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   60% is  1.4 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0    0.3   3.9%       1.0    0.0  10.2%
VORTICITY          1.7    2.5   8.8%       1.4    2.1  20.1%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   12.0  13.7%      18.4    8.9  23.4%
RH                73.1   80.2  -0.1%      70.9   78.7   3.0%
GOES              29.1   40.7   1.6%      29.3   40.7   1.4%
DVORAK             0.8    0.5   1.4%       0.8    0.5   1.8%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 2.1, February 2018