* NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX * * GFS VERSION * * EP032021 06/16/21 18 UTC * TIME (hr) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 Prob of Genesis 16% 22% LAT (deg N) 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 8.8 8.2 7.8 7.2 6.5 6.2 6.0 LON (deg W) 135.6 136.2 136.8 137.4 138.0 139.4 141.3 143.6 145.5 147.2 149.2 151.2 153.2 DTL (km) 2398 2342 2281 2220 2159 2027 1878 1742 1642 1583 1542 1493 1453 TRACK SOURCE AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TCGI 0-48h Genesis Forecast: 16% is 0.4 times the sample mean ( 44%) TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast: 22% is 0.4 times the sample mean ( 56%) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS ******* 48-HR ****** ******* 120-HR ****** AVG TCGI CONT AVG TCGI CONT DIVERGENCE -2.0 1.4 0.3% -2.0 0.3 1.8% VORTICITY 1.6 1.1 4.6% 1.5 0.4 3.1% VERTICAL SHEAR 12.9 13.2 5.3% 14.9 15.3 11.3% RH 79.1 74.9 2.9% 74.8 75.6 2.8% GOES 42.9 6.9 0.4% 42.8 6.9 0.4% DVORAK 0.9 1.0 2.7% 0.9 1.0 2.1% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius) GENESIS CLIM = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) DIVERGENCE = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1) VORTICITY = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1) VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) RH = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%) GOES = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%) DVORAK = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB Version 2.1, February 2018