*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP922021 06/12/21 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       65%                                 88%

LAT  (deg N)     11.2  11.3  11.4  11.4  11.4  11.1  10.8  10.6  10.6  10.9  11.9  13.4  15.1
LON  (deg W)    119.9 120.3 121.0 121.6 122.0 122.5 122.5 122.2 122.0 121.8 121.4 120.8 120.0
DTL  (km)        1672  1690  1731  1774  1804  1865  1890  1885  1870  1830  1719  1549  1344
TRACK SOURCE     AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   65% is  1.5 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   88% is  1.6 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -5.3  10.4%      -2.0   -2.1  11.7%
VORTICITY          1.6    2.1  18.0%       1.5    2.3  25.0%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    5.4  18.8%      14.9    5.5  35.7%
RH                79.1   74.1   7.2%      74.8   73.4   6.8%
GOES              42.9   21.2   4.0%      42.8   21.2   3.7%
DVORAK             0.9    1.0   6.9%       0.9    1.0   5.5%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 2.1, February 2018