*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL902021 05/21/21 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       22%                                 40%

LAT  (deg N)     36.0  36.2  35.3  33.8  32.8  34.3  35.5  35.2  35.8  38.5  42.7  49.9  59.2
LON  (deg W)     56.1  58.6  61.2  62.5  62.3  62.0  63.5  62.6  58.7  53.5  45.4  35.2  31.0
DTL  (km)        1109  1002   983  1108  1221  1066   905   955  1034   911   753  1299  1414
TRACK SOURCE     AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   22% is  0.7 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   40% is  0.9 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -0.2   3.9%       1.0    0.3   6.8%
VORTICITY          1.7    4.1  10.6%       1.4    3.0  20.1%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   27.8   6.0%      18.4   29.6   9.1%
RH                73.1   64.8  -0.1%      70.9   61.6   1.5%
GOES              29.1   24.0   0.8%      29.3   24.0   0.6%
DVORAK             0.8    0.5   1.2%       0.8    0.5   1.4%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 2.1, February 2018