* NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX * * GFS VERSION * * EP902019 10/19/19 18 UTC * TIME (hr) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 Prob of Genesis 38% 38% LAT (deg N) 17.1 17.1 17.3 17.8 18.6 20.2 21.0 21.2 21.4 21.5 21.7 21.8 22.1 LON (deg W) 104.5 104.4 104.2 104.2 104.2 103.9 103.9 105.0 107.0 108.7 110.2 111.0 110.9 DTL (km) 178 170 141 99 37 -137 -138 -22 145 201 135 152 131 TRACK SOURCE TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TCGI 0-48h Genesis Forecast: 38% is 0.9 times the sample mean ( 44%) TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast: 38% is 0.7 times the sample mean ( 56%) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS ******* 48-HR ****** ******* 120-HR ****** AVG TCGI CONT AVG TCGI CONT DIVERGENCE -2.0 -1.2 3.3% -2.0 -0.8 4.6% VORTICITY 1.6 0.8 6.9% 1.5 0.3 4.2% VERTICAL SHEAR 12.9 13.2 9.6% 14.9 14.8 17.3% RH 79.1 74.9 5.4% 74.8 64.8 2.9% GOES 42.9 54.8 7.8% 42.8 54.8 5.7% DVORAK 0.9 1.0 4.9% 0.9 1.0 3.2% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius) GENESIS CLIM = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) DIVERGENCE = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1) VORTICITY = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1) VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) RH = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%) GOES = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%) DVORAK = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB Version 2.1, February 2018