* ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX * * GFS VERSION * * AL912019 10/09/19 18 UTC * TIME (hr) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 Prob of Genesis 11% 34% LAT (deg N) 31.5 31.4 31.3 31.2 31.3 31.8 33.4 36.8 41.6 44.7 44.5 43.4 43.7 LON (deg W) 51.5 52.6 53.5 54.3 54.9 56.0 56.7 57.6 59.0 59.7 59.0 59.2 62.8 DTL (km) 1694 1700 1684 1668 1639 1545 1358 981 437 135 182 253 105 TRACK SOURCE AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI TABM TABM TABM TABM TCGI 0-48h Genesis Forecast: 11% is 0.4 times the sample mean ( 30%) TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast: 34% is 0.8 times the sample mean ( 43%) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS ******* 48-HR ****** ******* 120-HR ****** AVG TCGI CONT AVG TCGI CONT DIVERGENCE -1.0 1.0 1.3% 1.0 0.4 6.1% VORTICITY 1.7 2.3 3.6% 1.4 2.0 13.2% VERTICAL SHEAR 16.3 36.1 1.8% 18.4 35.1 6.1% RH 73.1 63.5 0.0% 70.9 62.5 1.5% GOES 29.1 3.5 0.1% 29.3 3.5 0.1% DVORAK 0.8 1.5 3.8% 0.8 1.5 7.5% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius) GENESIS CLIM = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) DIVERGENCE = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1) VORTICITY = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1) VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) RH = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%) GOES = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%) DVORAK = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB Version 2.1, February 2018