*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL972019 09/16/19 06 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       44%                                 72%

LAT  (deg N)      9.9  10.6  11.1  11.5  12.2  13.3  13.9  14.5  15.3  16.5  18.0  19.5  21.0
LON  (deg W)     40.7  40.5  40.5  40.6  40.8  41.7  43.3  45.2  47.3  49.6  52.1  55.0  57.9
DTL  (km)        1323  1382  1412  1429  1459  1469  1405  1328  1278  1292  1248  1132   869
TRACK SOURCE     AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   44% is  1.5 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   72% is  1.7 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -2.2   9.9%       1.0   -2.6  19.8%
VORTICITY          1.7    1.8   8.9%       1.4    2.1  20.8%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   12.0  17.8%      18.4   15.5  20.9%
RH                73.1   83.8  -0.1%      70.9   81.5   2.7%
GOES              29.1   23.5   1.2%      29.3   23.5   0.9%
DVORAK             0.8    1.0   6.5%       0.8    1.0   6.7%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 2.1, February 2018