* ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX * * GFS VERSION * * AL912019 09/03/19 18 UTC * TIME (hr) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 Prob of Genesis 78% 83% LAT (deg N) 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.6 19.8 20.2 20.8 21.9 23.5 25.3 27.2 29.1 31.2 LON (deg W) 32.4 33.2 33.8 34.4 34.8 35.5 36.5 37.8 39.5 41.5 43.5 45.5 47.8 DTL (km) 1634 1708 1764 1820 1858 1926 2024 2153 2321 2530 2328 2066 1782 TRACK SOURCE AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI TCGI 0-48h Genesis Forecast: 78% is 2.6 times the sample mean ( 30%) TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast: 83% is 1.9 times the sample mean ( 43%) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS ******* 48-HR ****** ******* 120-HR ****** AVG TCGI CONT AVG TCGI CONT DIVERGENCE -1.0 -0.4 8.7% 1.0 0.0 11.0% VORTICITY 1.7 3.3 18.7% 1.4 2.9 27.4% VERTICAL SHEAR 16.3 13.9 22.2% 18.4 19.4 19.2% RH 73.1 72.0 -0.2% 70.9 63.7 2.5% GOES 29.1 30.0 2.0% 29.3 30.0 1.2% DVORAK 0.8 2.5 26.8% 0.8 2.5 21.9% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius) GENESIS CLIM = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) DIVERGENCE = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1) VORTICITY = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1) VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) RH = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%) GOES = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%) DVORAK = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB Version 2.1, February 2018