* NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX * * GFS VERSION * * EP982019 09/01/19 12 UTC * TIME (hr) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 Prob of Genesis 87% 96% LAT (deg N) 13.6 14.4 15.3 16.2 17.0 18.0 18.1 18.0 19.2 21.1 22.6 23.5 24.0 LON (deg W) 108.0 108.8 109.6 110.6 111.8 114.2 115.6 116.2 116.3 117.7 120.0 122.4 124.3 DTL (km) 719 685 668 691 685 693 795 839 749 689 760 888 1017 TRACK SOURCE TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TCGI 0-48h Genesis Forecast: 87% is 2.0 times the sample mean ( 44%) TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast: 96% is 1.7 times the sample mean ( 56%) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS ******* 48-HR ****** ******* 120-HR ****** AVG TCGI CONT AVG TCGI CONT DIVERGENCE -2.0 -2.2 6.6% -2.0 -1.1 8.3% VORTICITY 1.6 2.6 23.1% 1.5 2.9 28.0% VERTICAL SHEAR 12.9 8.8 18.0% 14.9 7.4 32.1% RH 79.1 80.2 10.3% 74.8 76.1 6.8% GOES 42.9 49.1 10.5% 42.8 49.1 8.2% DVORAK 0.9 2.0 18.3% 0.9 2.0 12.5% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius) GENESIS CLIM = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) DIVERGENCE = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1) VORTICITY = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1) VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) RH = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%) GOES = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%) DVORAK = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB Version 2.1, February 2018