*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP962019 07/12/19 06 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       40%                                 40%

LAT  (deg N)     13.8  14.1  14.4  14.8  15.2  16.3  17.3  17.9  18.4  18.5  18.6  18.5  18.5
LON  (deg W)    105.6 106.7 107.8 109.1 110.6 114.0 117.6 121.7 126.0 130.1 134.3 138.5 142.7
DTL  (km)         553   585   622   672   761   844  1005  1242  1531  1861  2153  1720  1271
TRACK SOURCE     TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   40% is  0.9 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   40% is  0.7 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -0.3   2.5%      -2.0   -0.1   3.8%
VORTICITY          1.6    1.9  12.5%       1.5    1.1   8.8%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9   15.1   9.0%      14.9   17.1  17.2%
RH                79.1   77.0   6.2%      74.8   64.5   3.0%
GOES              42.9   57.1   8.4%      42.8   57.1   6.3%
DVORAK             0.9    0.5   1.5%       0.9    0.5   1.0%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 2.1, February 2018