*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP922018 11/02/18 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       46%                                 46%

LAT  (deg N)     11.7  11.7  11.6  11.4  11.1  10.3   9.1   8.2   8.1   8.8  10.1  11.6  13.0
LON  (deg W)    120.1 120.4 120.8 121.1 121.3 121.5 121.1 120.4 119.5 119.0 118.6 118.3 118.1
DTL  (km)        1641  1665  1700  1738  1778  1864  1943  1982  1937  1839  1691  1532  1396
TRACK SOURCE     TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   46% is  1.1 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   46% is  0.8 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -0.7   3.1%      -2.0    1.7   0.7%
VORTICITY          1.6    0.9   8.4%       1.5    0.7   8.0%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    5.9  15.1%      14.9   12.0  23.2%
RH                79.1   83.2   8.2%      74.8   73.6   5.0%
GOES              42.9   60.7   9.8%      42.8   60.7   8.0%
DVORAK             0.9    0.5   1.6%       0.9    0.5   1.2%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 2.1, February 2018