*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP942018 08/04/18 06 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       81%                                 93%

LAT  (deg N)     13.3  13.4  13.5  13.7  14.0  14.7  15.4  15.9  16.0  16.3  16.9  17.6  18.2
LON  (deg W)    115.4 116.2 116.9 117.7 118.4 119.6 120.9 122.2 123.2 123.9 124.4 124.4 124.1
DTL  (km)        1209  1242  1273  1305  1327  1357  1377  1428  1498  1532  1532  1487  1415
TRACK SOURCE     AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   81% is  1.9 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   93% is  1.7 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -4.7  10.2%      -2.0   -2.7  12.8%
VORTICITY          1.6    2.5  22.1%       1.5    2.6  26.2%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    8.6  17.8%      14.9    8.3  32.3%
RH                79.1   82.1  10.8%      74.8   74.0   6.6%
GOES              42.9   38.0   7.9%      42.8   38.0   6.5%
DVORAK             0.9    1.5  12.6%       0.9    1.5   9.0%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 2.1, February 2018