*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP932018 07/30/18 18 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       70%                                 85%

LAT  (deg N)     10.8  11.2  11.5  11.7  12.0  12.5  12.9  13.0  12.9  12.5  12.1  11.7  11.2
LON  (deg W)    111.8 113.3 114.6 116.0 117.4 120.0 122.6 125.1 127.4 129.8 132.2 134.4 136.5
DTL  (km)        1196  1274  1358  1396  1443  1568  1714  1872  2069  2297  2499  2350  2163
TRACK SOURCE     TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   70% is  1.6 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   85% is  1.5 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -1.9   5.7%      -2.0   -1.5   9.8%
VORTICITY          1.6    1.5  14.6%       1.5    1.5  17.3%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    7.0  18.4%      14.9    8.6  33.1%
RH                79.1   82.2  10.5%      74.8   78.3   7.7%
GOES              42.9   43.0   8.7%      42.8   43.0   7.5%
DVORAK             0.9    1.5  12.2%       0.9    1.5   9.3%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 2.1, February 2018