*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           CP912018 07/17/18 12 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       30%                                 34%

LAT  (deg N)     14.0  14.1  14.2  14.0  13.9  13.8  13.6  13.6  13.2  13.2  12.9  12.1  12.2
LON  (deg W)    146.0 147.5 149.1 150.7 152.3 155.5 157.9 159.8 161.6 163.5 165.1 166.9 168.6
DTL  (km)        1118   981   845   750   657   566   638   739   894  1042  1152  1330  1434
TRACK SOURCE     AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   30% is  0.7 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   34% is  0.6 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -0.8   2.4%      -2.0   -0.1   3.2%
VORTICITY          1.6    1.8  10.0%       1.5    1.3   8.4%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9   28.4   1.7%      14.9   28.6  10.8%
RH                79.1   77.2   5.1%      74.8   72.1   3.4%
GOES              42.9   32.6   3.9%      42.8   32.6   3.0%
DVORAK             0.9    1.5   7.3%       0.9    1.5   5.0%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = TAFB Dvorak T-number 

Version 2.1, February 2018