*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           CP912018 07/16/18 12 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       44%                                 51%

LAT  (deg N)     13.9  14.3  14.1  14.1  14.4  14.6  14.2  13.9  13.9  13.8  13.6  13.4  13.2
LON  (deg W)    140.3 142.2 143.8 145.0 146.3 149.1 152.2 154.9 157.2 159.3 161.4 163.4 165.4
DTL  (km)        1664  1458  1315  1202  1066   814   635   560   581   690   847  1020  1139
TRACK SOURCE     AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   44% is  1.0 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   51% is  0.9 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -0.4   2.8%      -2.0    0.1   3.8%
VORTICITY          1.6    2.3  15.1%       1.5    1.7  13.8%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9   26.6   3.2%      14.9   25.4  16.0%
RH                79.1   77.8   6.8%      74.8   72.6   4.7%
GOES              42.9   45.0   7.0%      42.8   45.0   5.7%
DVORAK             0.9    1.5   9.4%       0.9    1.5   6.7%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = TAFB Dvorak T-number 

Version 2.1, February 2018