*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP022018 06/12/18 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       15%                                 21%

LAT  (deg N)     16.6  16.6  16.5  16.3  16.0  15.6  15.4  15.4  15.5  16.4  17.5  18.0  18.6
LON  (deg W)    118.6 119.1 119.4 119.7 119.8 119.6 119.1 118.3 117.7 117.4 117.4 118.0 118.7
DTL  (km)        1122  1153  1181  1218  1251  1274  1262  1205  1156  1058   972   953   957
TRACK SOURCE     AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   15% is  0.3 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   21% is  0.4 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0    1.7   0.2%      -2.0    1.3   0.8%
VORTICITY          1.6    2.3   7.7%       1.5    1.5   6.8%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9   12.6   5.4%      14.9   12.7  12.0%
RH                79.1   58.9   0.7%      74.8   51.5   0.8%
GOES              42.9    2.1   0.0%      42.8    2.1   0.1%
DVORAK             0.9    0.5   0.8%       0.9    0.5   0.6%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = TAFB Dvorak T-number 

Version 2.1, February 2018