*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP902018 05/08/18 06 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       74%                                 82%

LAT  (deg N)      8.8   9.9  11.3  11.5  11.7  12.4  13.2  13.8  14.2  15.0  15.4  15.9  16.3
LON  (deg W)    119.7 119.5 120.2 121.5 121.8 122.4 123.1 124.0 124.6 124.4 124.6 124.3 123.8
DTL  (km)        1878  1764  1683  1759  1765  1740  1717  1731  1745  1668  1654  1594  1524
TRACK SOURCE     AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   74% is  1.7 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   82% is  1.5 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -3.7   8.4%      -2.0   -1.8  10.4%
VORTICITY          1.6    2.2  19.6%       1.5    2.3  24.1%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    7.6  18.1%      14.9   18.5  26.1%
RH                79.1   83.0  10.7%      74.8   74.8   6.8%
GOES              42.9   74.2  15.4%      42.8   74.2  12.9%
DVORAK             0.9    0.5   2.1%       0.9    0.5   1.5%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = TAFB Dvorak T-number 

Version 2.1, February 2018