*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP902018 05/08/18 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       82%                                 89%

LAT  (deg N)      9.2   9.3   9.3   9.4   9.4  10.0  11.8  13.7  15.3  15.9  16.0  15.9  16.3
LON  (deg W)    120.4 121.5 122.3 122.8 122.9 122.6 122.2 122.8 124.1 125.4 125.9 125.6 124.7
DTL  (km)        1888  1951  2001  2029  2034  1961  1782  1648  1619  1687  1719  1704  1600
TRACK SOURCE     TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   82% is  1.9 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   89% is  1.6 times the sample mean (  56%)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -3.6   8.5%      -2.0   -1.4   9.8%
VORTICITY          1.6    2.5  22.0%       1.5    2.5  26.7%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    6.6  19.3%      14.9   17.8  27.6%
RH                79.1   82.6  11.0%      74.8   73.8   6.9%
GOES              42.9   88.9  19.0%      42.8   88.9  16.0%
DVORAK             0.9    0.5   2.1%       0.9    0.5   1.6%

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = TAFB Dvorak T-number 

Version 2.1, February 2018