*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP202017 10/29/17 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       14%                                 23%

LAT  (deg N)     14.4  14.6  14.9  15.2  15.3  15.2  14.5  13.8  13.5  13.3  13.3  13.4  13.8
LON  (deg W)     88.0  87.2  86.8  86.1  85.4  84.4  84.4  85.8  88.1  90.8  93.8  97.3 101.1
DTL  (km)        -135  -126   -92   -66   -57   -52  -108  -217   -40    66   216   267   360
TRACK SOURCE     AVNI  AVNI  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   14% is  0.3 times the sample mean (  48%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   23% is  0.3 times the sample mean (  67%)

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CONTRIBUTIONS (CONT) OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY  

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
GENESIS CLIM                   47.9%                   66.9%
DIVERGENCE        -2.3   -1.8  -0.5%      -1.7   -0.8  -7.6%
VORTICITY          1.6    0.0 -16.0%       1.5   -0.1 -30.8%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9   18.7  -6.5%      14.9   11.5   5.0%
RH                79.1   78.4  -0.4%      74.8   77.0   1.0%
GOES              42.9   30.5  -4.0%      42.8   30.5  -5.0%
DVORAK             0.9    0.5  -6.3%       0.9    0.5  -7.0%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = % GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = TAFB Dvorak T-number 

Version 2.0, August 2017