*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL082017 08/06/17 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       34%                                 64%

LAT  (deg N)     10.3  11.3  11.6  12.2  12.8  14.0  14.6  15.0  15.6  16.1  16.9  18.0  19.1
LON  (deg W)     37.2  39.1  40.2  41.1  41.7  44.3  47.9  51.7  55.5  59.2  62.0  65.1  67.8
DTL  (km)        1499  1553  1471  1434  1430  1346  1179  1063   799   620   421    71    84
TRACK SOURCE     AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   34% is  1.2 times the sample mean (  29%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   64% is  1.3 times the sample mean (  48%)

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CONTRIBUTIONS (CONT) OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY  

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
GENESIS CLIM                   28.5%                   48.4%
DIVERGENCE        -1.4   -0.1  -4.6%      -1.4   -0.6  -3.5%
VORTICITY          1.7    2.9  10.9%       1.4    2.4  17.6%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   12.0   6.2%      18.4   13.2   7.1%
RH                73.1   75.9  -0.1%      70.9   72.8   0.6%
GOES              29.1   32.1   0.4%      29.3   32.1   0.2%
DVORAK             0.8    0.5  -7.6%       0.8    0.5  -6.7%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = % GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = TAFB Dvorak T-number 

Version 2.0, August 2017