* ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX * * AL902015 10/02/15 06 UTC * TIME (hr) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 TCGI (%) 19.9 26.3 HDIV (x10-7s-1) -3.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 VORT (x10-6s-1) 4.5 3.8 3.1 2.3 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.3 -1.1 -1.7 DV24 (x10-6s-1) -2.7 -2.4 -2.2 -1.7 -1.3 -0.8 -0.5 0.0 -0.3 -1.2 -1.4 -0.4 0.5 VSHD (kt) 36 29 14 1 6 18 14 9 7 16 17 18 9 MLRH (%) 69 67 62 50 46 37 35 36 42 52 58 54 54 PCCD (%) 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TNUM 2.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (deg N) 26.7 27.2 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.6 30.1 30.7 31.1 LON (deg W) 53.1 52.2 51.7 51.4 51.5 51.4 51.2 50.7 50.0 48.8 47.5 45.7 43.2 DTL (km) 1596 1698 1773 1821 1833 1862 1880 1922 1973 1941 1908 1888 1932 TRACK SOURCE BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) = 19.9 is 0.7 times the sample mean ( 27.9) Prob of Genesis (t=120h) = 26.3 is 0.7 times the sample mean ( 40.3) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONTRIBUTIONS OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY ******* 48-HR ****** ******* 120-HR ****** AVG FCST %CONT AVG FCST %CONT CLIM (%) 27.9 40.3 HDIV (x10-7s-1) -1.3 1.4 -7.5 -1.2 1.0 -20.1 DV24 (x10-6s-1) -0.2 -1.5 -18.1 -0.2 -0.9 -17.6 VSHD (kt) 16.8 16.6 0.2 19.0 14.5 4.0 MLRH (%) 64.9 49.3 -0.7 61.3 48.7 -1.6 PCCD (%) 29.1 39.0 1.6 28.7 39.0 1.6 TNUM 0.9 2.0 16.5 0.9 2.0 19.8 %CONT = % contribution to TCGI probability --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius) CLIM = Climatological Probability of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) HDIV = 850-mb GFS Horizontal Divergence DV24 = 24-hr Change in GFS 850-mb Vorticity (VORT) VSHD = 850-200 mb GFS Vertical Shear MLRH = 600-mb GFS Relative Humidity PCCD = % GOES WV Pixels Colder Than -40C TNUM = TAFB T-Number