* ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX * * AL982015 09/27/15 18 UTC * TIME (hr) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 TCGI (%) 28.3 46.4 HDIV (x10-7s-1) -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 -2.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 VORT (x10-6s-1) 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.0 1.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.5 1.6 1.1 DV24 (x10-6s-1) 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -1.4 -1.4 -0.3 1.2 1.3 -0.4 -0.7 -1.1 VSHD (kt) 15 17 23 21 16 23 14 17 10 10 15 28 41 MLRH (%) 77 77 74 72 70 67 63 64 68 73 80 74 69 PCCD (%) 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TNUM 1.50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (deg N) 27.1 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.5 30.1 29.7 31.7 33.3 35.3 37.3 38.9 LON (deg W) 69.4 69.9 70.5 70.8 71.5 72.4 73.1 72.6 71.8 70.6 69.2 67.7 65.4 DTL (km) 823 873 901 910 854 775 611 674 558 542 604 541 509 TRACK SOURCE AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) = 28.3 is 1.0 times the sample mean ( 27.9) Prob of Genesis (t=120h) = 46.4 is 1.2 times the sample mean ( 40.3) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONTRIBUTIONS OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY ******* 48-HR ****** ******* 120-HR ****** AVG FCST %CONT AVG FCST %CONT CLIM (%) 27.9 40.3 HDIV (x10-7s-1) -1.3 -0.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.6 -3.8 DV24 (x10-6s-1) -0.2 -0.7 -6.9 -0.2 -0.3 -2.2 VSHD (kt) 16.8 18.9 -1.6 19.0 18.8 0.2 MLRH (%) 64.9 70.3 0.2 61.3 70.7 0.1 PCCD (%) 29.1 35.8 1.1 28.7 35.8 1.1 TNUM 0.9 1.5 9.0 0.9 1.5 10.8 %CONT = % contribution to TCGI probability --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius) CLIM = Climatological Probability of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) HDIV = 850-mb GFS Horizontal Divergence DV24 = 24-hr Change in GFS 850-mb Vorticity (VORT) VSHD = 850-200 mb GFS Vertical Shear MLRH = 600-mb GFS Relative Humidity PCCD = % GOES WV Pixels Colder Than -40C TNUM = TAFB T-Number