*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *           AL952015 09/18/15 18 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
TCGI (%)                                             82.1                                92.0

HDIV (x10-7s-1)  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0
VORT (x10-6s-1)   2.5   2.7   2.8   2.5   2.6   2.8   2.5   2.5   2.1   1.6   1.5   1.4   1.6
DV24 (x10-6s-1)   0.1  -0.3   0.0   0.0  -0.1  -0.3  -0.4  -0.9  -0.6  -0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0
VSHD (kt)           4     6     7    10     8    14    12     5     6    11    11    10     8
MLRH (%)           85    82    85    84    82    78    69    68    65    66    67    67    67
PCCD (%)           67   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
TNUM             2.00   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

LAT  (deg N)     13.1  13.3  13.8  14.1  14.6  15.8  16.4  17.7  18.9  20.0  20.8  21.0  21.5
LON  (deg W)     36.8  37.4  38.2  38.9  39.6  42.2  44.5  46.1  47.4  48.7  49.3  49.6  49.6
DTL  (km)        1812  1822  1791  1753  1733  1644  1542  1573  1632  1667  1673  1664  1701
TRACK SOURCE     AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO

Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) =  82.1 is  2.9 times the sample mean ( 27.9)
Prob of Genesis (t=120h) =  92.0 is  2.3 times the sample mean ( 40.3)

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CONTRIBUTIONS OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY  

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   FCST  %CONT       AVG   FCST  %CONT
CLIM (%)                        27.9                    40.3
HDIV (x10-7s-1)   -1.3   -3.1   10.1      -1.2   -2.5   16.1
DV24 (x10-6s-1)   -0.2   -0.1    1.5      -0.2   -0.2   -0.2
VSHD (kt)         16.8   10.1    7.9      19.0    9.1    9.3
MLRH (%)          64.9   79.8   -0.5      61.3   72.3   -0.2
PCCD (%)          29.1   66.6    9.5      28.7   66.6    6.0
TNUM               0.9    2.0   25.7       0.9    2.0   20.7

%CONT = % contribution to TCGI probability

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

CLIM = Climatological Probability of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
HDIV = 850-mb GFS Horizontal Divergence
DV24 = 24-hr Change in GFS 850-mb Vorticity (VORT)
VSHD = 850-200 mb GFS Vertical Shear
MLRH = 600-mb GFS Relative Humidity
PCCD = % GOES WV Pixels Colder Than -40C
TNUM = TAFB T-Number