*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *           AL952015 09/18/15 06 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
TCGI (%)                                             74.4                                84.2

HDIV (x10-7s-1)  -4.0  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  -4.0  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0
VORT (x10-6s-1)   2.8   2.7   2.7   2.7   2.4   2.5   2.7   2.5   2.2   1.7   1.4   1.0   1.0
DV24 (x10-6s-1)  -0.4  -0.3  -0.2   0.0   0.3   0.0  -0.5  -0.8  -0.8  -0.7  -0.4   0.3   0.4
VSHD (kt)           8     6     6     3     2     7    15    12     9     7     7     5     9
MLRH (%)           87    83    85    86    85    83    79    65    65    62    68    68    70
PCCD (%)           58   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
TNUM             1.50   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

LAT  (deg N)     12.9  12.8  12.8  12.8  13.0  14.1  15.6  16.4  17.4  18.4  19.1  19.8  20.1
LON  (deg W)     35.4  36.1  36.6  37.2  37.7  39.1  41.5  44.4  46.3  47.4  48.0  48.0  47.9
DTL  (km)        1828  1797  1784  1771  1784  1736  1673  1548  1534  1583  1625  1696  1731
TRACK SOURCE     AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO

Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) =  74.4 is  2.7 times the sample mean ( 27.9)
Prob of Genesis (t=120h) =  84.2 is  2.1 times the sample mean ( 40.3)

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CONTRIBUTIONS OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY  

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   FCST  %CONT       AVG   FCST  %CONT
CLIM (%)                        27.9                    40.3
HDIV (x10-7s-1)   -1.3   -3.7   13.2      -1.2   -2.4   17.0
DV24 (x10-6s-1)   -0.2   -0.2    0.8      -0.2   -0.3   -1.9
VSHD (kt)         16.8    7.3   11.6      19.0    8.2   11.5
MLRH (%)          64.9   83.7   -0.9      61.3   74.2   -0.5
PCCD (%)          29.1   57.5    7.4      28.7   57.5    5.1
TNUM               0.9    1.5   14.5       0.9    1.5   12.7

%CONT = % contribution to TCGI probability

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

CLIM = Climatological Probability of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
HDIV = 850-mb GFS Horizontal Divergence
DV24 = 24-hr Change in GFS 850-mb Vorticity (VORT)
VSHD = 850-200 mb GFS Vertical Shear
MLRH = 600-mb GFS Relative Humidity
PCCD = % GOES WV Pixels Colder Than -40C
TNUM = TAFB T-Number