*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *           AL952015 09/17/15 06 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
TCGI (%)                                             80.7                                94.9

HDIV (x10-7s-1)  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0  -5.0  -5.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0  -4.0  -7.0
VORT (x10-6s-1)   2.6   2.7   2.4   2.6   2.7   2.7   2.1   2.1   1.7   1.5   0.9   1.0   1.2
DV24 (x10-6s-1)   0.1   0.1   0.3  -0.2  -0.6  -0.6  -0.4  -0.6  -0.8  -0.5   0.3   1.1   1.4
VSHD (kt)           1     1     3     4     5     5    10    13    15    13     9     7    21
MLRH (%)           82    80    78    80    83    81    78    77    71    66    68    72    72
PCCD (%)           44   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
TNUM             2.00   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

LAT  (deg N)     11.6  11.8  12.1  12.4  12.7  13.4  14.4  15.6  17.0  18.8  20.9  23.3  25.4
LON  (deg W)     31.5  32.5  33.0  33.5  33.9  35.0  36.7  38.6  40.5  42.3  43.5  44.2  44.5
DTL  (km)        1555  1655  1701  1748  1785  1892  1956  1887  1862  1896  2018  2219  2324
TRACK SOURCE     AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI

Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) =  80.7 is  2.9 times the sample mean ( 27.9)
Prob of Genesis (t=120h) =  94.9 is  2.4 times the sample mean ( 40.3)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CONTRIBUTIONS OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY  

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   FCST  %CONT       AVG   FCST  %CONT
CLIM (%)                        27.9                    40.3
HDIV (x10-7s-1)   -1.3   -3.2   10.7      -1.2   -3.0   20.9
DV24 (x10-6s-1)   -0.2   -0.3   -1.5      -0.2   -0.1    3.1
VSHD (kt)         16.8    4.5   14.6      19.0    9.2    8.9
MLRH (%)          64.9   80.1   -0.5      61.3   74.9   -0.6
PCCD (%)          29.1   43.7    3.7      28.7   43.7    2.3
TNUM               0.9    2.0   25.8       0.9    2.0   20.0

%CONT = % contribution to TCGI probability

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

CLIM = Climatological Probability of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
HDIV = 850-mb GFS Horizontal Divergence
DV24 = 24-hr Change in GFS 850-mb Vorticity (VORT)
VSHD = 850-200 mb GFS Vertical Shear
MLRH = 600-mb GFS Relative Humidity
PCCD = % GOES WV Pixels Colder Than -40C
TNUM = TAFB T-Number