* ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX * * AL952015 09/17/15 00 UTC * TIME (hr) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 TCGI (%) 81.4 92.5 HDIV (x10-7s-1) -6.0 -5.0 -3.0 -2.0 -3.0 -2.0 0.0 -2.0 -1.0 -2.0 -4.0 -4.0 -3.0 VORT (x10-6s-1) 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.8 DV24 (x10-6s-1) 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.7 -1.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.8 1.0 VSHD (kt) 3 2 4 2 5 8 9 18 17 16 13 9 10 MLRH (%) 79 80 77 78 77 78 80 78 77 71 70 72 72 PCCD (%) 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TNUM 2.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (deg N) 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.7 18.2 20.0 21.8 23.4 LON (deg W) 30.1 31.0 31.7 32.5 32.9 34.0 35.5 37.2 39.0 40.8 42.2 42.9 43.2 DTL (km) 1411 1497 1561 1637 1673 1779 1933 2001 1943 1946 2009 2136 2276 TRACK SOURCE AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) = 81.4 is 2.9 times the sample mean ( 27.9) Prob of Genesis (t=120h) = 92.5 is 2.3 times the sample mean ( 40.3) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONTRIBUTIONS OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY ******* 48-HR ****** ******* 120-HR ****** AVG FCST %CONT AVG FCST %CONT CLIM (%) 27.9 40.3 HDIV (x10-7s-1) -1.3 -2.8 8.5 -1.2 -2.6 16.5 DV24 (x10-6s-1) -0.2 -0.1 1.2 -0.2 0.0 4.2 VSHD (kt) 16.8 5.3 13.6 19.0 9.8 8.6 MLRH (%) 64.9 78.4 -0.3 61.3 75.6 -0.7 PCCD (%) 29.1 48.1 4.8 28.7 48.1 3.1 TNUM 0.9 2.0 25.7 0.9 2.0 20.6 %CONT = % contribution to TCGI probability --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius) CLIM = Climatological Probability of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) HDIV = 850-mb GFS Horizontal Divergence DV24 = 24-hr Change in GFS 850-mb Vorticity (VORT) VSHD = 850-200 mb GFS Vertical Shear MLRH = 600-mb GFS Relative Humidity PCCD = % GOES WV Pixels Colder Than -40C TNUM = TAFB T-Number