* ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX * * AL952015 09/16/15 06 UTC * TIME (hr) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 TCGI (%) 63.5 77.2 HDIV (x10-7s-1) -3.0 -3.0 -2.0 -4.0 -3.0 0.0 -2.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -4.0 -3.0 -1.0 VORT (x10-6s-1) 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.5 DV24 (x10-6s-1) 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 VSHD (kt) 14 11 7 1 1 2 6 9 6 7 11 11 7 MLRH (%) 80 79 79 79 81 77 82 76 78 76 75 66 69 PCCD (%) 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TNUM 1.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (deg N) 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.4 12.0 12.6 13.0 13.5 14.4 15.5 17.3 19.1 LON (deg W) 27.7 28.7 29.5 30.2 31.0 32.7 34.3 35.6 36.9 38.4 40.0 41.5 42.8 DTL (km) 1206 1304 1374 1438 1509 1672 1830 1832 1854 1816 1772 1821 1891 TRACK SOURCE AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) = 63.5 is 2.3 times the sample mean ( 27.9) Prob of Genesis (t=120h) = 77.2 is 1.9 times the sample mean ( 40.3) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONTRIBUTIONS OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY ******* 48-HR ****** ******* 120-HR ****** AVG FCST %CONT AVG FCST %CONT CLIM (%) 27.9 40.3 HDIV (x10-7s-1) -1.3 -2.2 6.3 -1.2 -2.5 19.9 DV24 (x10-6s-1) -0.2 0.3 12.9 -0.2 -0.1 2.0 VSHD (kt) 16.8 5.1 14.9 19.0 6.9 14.0 MLRH (%) 64.9 79.5 -0.5 61.3 76.3 -1.0 PCCD (%) 29.1 27.2 -0.5 28.7 27.2 -0.3 TNUM 0.9 1.0 2.5 0.9 1.0 2.3 %CONT = % contribution to TCGI probability --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius) CLIM = Climatological Probability of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) HDIV = 850-mb GFS Horizontal Divergence DV24 = 24-hr Change in GFS 850-mb Vorticity (VORT) VSHD = 850-200 mb GFS Vertical Shear MLRH = 600-mb GFS Relative Humidity PCCD = % GOES WV Pixels Colder Than -40C TNUM = TAFB T-Number