*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *           AL932015 09/16/15 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
TCGI (%)                                             34.5                                41.9

HDIV (x10-7s-1)  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0
VORT (x10-6s-1)   2.0   2.3   2.1   2.0   1.8   1.8   1.7   1.4   1.6   1.4   1.5   1.4   1.2
DV24 (x10-6s-1)  -0.2  -0.6  -0.3  -0.3  -0.1  -0.4  -0.1   0.0  -0.1   0.0  -0.3  -0.3  -0.2
VSHD (kt)           1     5     7     5    10    20    25    28    29    27    33    21    17
MLRH (%)           76    79    77    72    69    61    51    47    48    56    54    55    49
PCCD (%)           35   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
TNUM             1.00   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

LAT  (deg N)     12.9  13.5  14.1  14.7  15.5  16.9  18.1  19.3  20.4  21.3  21.8  22.0  22.2
LON  (deg W)     42.7  43.1  43.4  43.6  43.8  44.3  45.0  46.0  47.1  48.4  49.7  51.2  52.6
DTL  (km)        1362  1383  1415  1455  1510  1599  1670  1737  1796  1780  1714  1567  1432
TRACK SOURCE     AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI

Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) =  34.5 is  1.2 times the sample mean ( 27.9)
Prob of Genesis (t=120h) =  41.9 is  1.0 times the sample mean ( 40.3)

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CONTRIBUTIONS OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY  

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   FCST  %CONT       AVG   FCST  %CONT
CLIM (%)                        27.9                    40.3
HDIV (x10-7s-1)   -1.3   -1.4    1.4      -1.2   -1.0    0.0
DV24 (x10-6s-1)   -0.2   -0.3   -0.8      -0.2   -0.2    0.1
VSHD (kt)         16.8   12.2    3.5      19.0   20.2   -0.9
MLRH (%)          64.9   67.3    0.1      61.3   58.0   -0.4
PCCD (%)          29.1   35.3    1.0      28.7   35.3    1.0
TNUM               0.9    1.0    1.5       0.9    1.0    1.8

%CONT = % contribution to TCGI probability

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

CLIM = Climatological Probability of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
HDIV = 850-mb GFS Horizontal Divergence
DV24 = 24-hr Change in GFS 850-mb Vorticity (VORT)
VSHD = 850-200 mb GFS Vertical Shear
MLRH = 600-mb GFS Relative Humidity
PCCD = % GOES WV Pixels Colder Than -40C
TNUM = TAFB T-Number