* ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX * * AL952015 09/15/15 12 UTC * TIME (hr) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 TCGI (%) 73.6 77.7 HDIV (x10-7s-1) -2.0 0.0 -1.0 -3.0 -1.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 -4.0 0.0 0.0 -3.0 0.0 VORT (x10-6s-1) 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.5 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.5 2.6 2.0 DV24 (x10-6s-1) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 -0.1 -0.7 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -1.0 -0.8 VSHD (kt) 14 10 5 3 1 6 3 4 4 8 15 12 9 MLRH (%) 86 86 84 85 84 85 85 79 78 79 75 72 65 PCCD (%) 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TNUM 1.50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (deg N) 10.6 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.6 12.0 12.4 13.5 14.1 14.4 15.2 15.9 16.9 LON (deg W) 23.5 25.1 26.5 27.6 28.5 30.7 32.2 33.6 35.3 36.5 38.4 40.2 41.9 DTL (km) 751 915 1062 1164 1242 1460 1609 1740 1916 1960 1873 1790 1760 TRACK SOURCE AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) = 73.6 is 2.6 times the sample mean ( 27.9) Prob of Genesis (t=120h) = 77.7 is 1.9 times the sample mean ( 40.3) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONTRIBUTIONS OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY ******* 48-HR ****** ******* 120-HR ****** AVG FCST %CONT AVG FCST %CONT CLIM (%) 27.9 40.3 HDIV (x10-7s-1) -1.3 -2.2 6.1 -1.2 -1.6 8.0 DV24 (x10-6s-1) -0.2 0.2 10.1 -0.2 -0.2 1.5 VSHD (kt) 16.8 5.5 13.9 19.0 6.9 13.9 MLRH (%) 64.9 85.0 -1.0 61.3 79.7 -1.7 PCCD (%) 29.1 37.5 2.2 28.7 37.5 1.7 TNUM 0.9 1.5 14.5 0.9 1.5 13.9 %CONT = % contribution to TCGI probability --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius) CLIM = Climatological Probability of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) HDIV = 850-mb GFS Horizontal Divergence DV24 = 24-hr Change in GFS 850-mb Vorticity (VORT) VSHD = 850-200 mb GFS Vertical Shear MLRH = 600-mb GFS Relative Humidity PCCD = % GOES WV Pixels Colder Than -40C TNUM = TAFB T-Number