* ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX * * AL932015 09/15/15 12 UTC * TIME (hr) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 TCGI (%) 32.2 36.8 HDIV (x10-7s-1) 2.0 1.0 -1.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 0.0 VORT (x10-6s-1) 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.0 DV24 (x10-6s-1) 0.3 0.2 0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.3 VSHD (kt) 2 2 2 8 11 11 21 27 31 33 32 37 26 MLRH (%) 68 68 71 73 71 64 60 49 42 44 47 48 53 PCCD (%) 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TNUM 1.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (deg N) 12.2 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.2 15.4 16.8 18.3 20.0 21.4 22.2 22.9 23.7 LON (deg W) 41.5 42.1 42.5 42.9 43.2 43.3 43.6 44.1 45.7 46.8 48.0 47.9 48.2 DTL (km) 1401 1391 1401 1414 1437 1536 1635 1739 1821 1910 1876 1920 1913 TRACK SOURCE AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO BAMG BAMG Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) = 32.2 is 1.2 times the sample mean ( 27.9) Prob of Genesis (t=120h) = 36.8 is 0.9 times the sample mean ( 40.3) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONTRIBUTIONS OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY ******* 48-HR ****** ******* 120-HR ****** AVG FCST %CONT AVG FCST %CONT CLIM (%) 27.9 40.3 HDIV (x10-7s-1) -1.3 -0.4 -1.7 -1.2 -0.8 -2.4 DV24 (x10-6s-1) -0.2 -0.2 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 1.4 VSHD (kt) 16.8 9.0 5.9 19.0 21.4 -2.0 MLRH (%) 64.9 67.1 0.1 61.3 55.9 -0.7 PCCD (%) 29.1 18.3 -1.8 28.7 18.3 -1.6 TNUM 0.9 1.0 1.5 0.9 1.0 1.8 %CONT = % contribution to TCGI probability --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius) CLIM = Climatological Probability of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) HDIV = 850-mb GFS Horizontal Divergence DV24 = 24-hr Change in GFS 850-mb Vorticity (VORT) VSHD = 850-200 mb GFS Vertical Shear MLRH = 600-mb GFS Relative Humidity PCCD = % GOES WV Pixels Colder Than -40C TNUM = TAFB T-Number