*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *           AL932015 09/14/15 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
TCGI (%)                                             33.4                                76.9

HDIV (x10-7s-1)   1.0   3.0   5.0   6.0   6.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -4.0  -4.0  -8.0  -8.0  -2.0
VORT (x10-6s-1)   2.4   2.6   2.8   2.4   2.9   2.9   2.7   2.3   2.2   2.1   1.8   2.3   3.0
DV24 (x10-6s-1)   0.5  -0.1   0.1   0.3  -0.2  -0.6  -0.5  -0.2  -0.4   0.2   1.2   0.8   1.0
VSHD (kt)          11    12    12    12     4     5     9    21    21    27    28    24    29
MLRH (%)           81    79    77    74    71    69    71    67    71    73    74    74    71
PCCD (%)           52   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
TNUM             1.00   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

LAT  (deg N)     11.4  11.8  11.9  12.0  12.6  13.8  15.2  17.1  19.2  21.8  25.2  28.4  30.6
LON  (deg W)     34.7  35.8  37.1  37.8  38.1  39.5  40.1  40.8  40.3  40.4  39.1  37.5  35.8
DTL  (km)        1694  1698  1675  1673  1723  1682  1741  1851  2066  2282  2288  2189  2111
TRACK SOURCE     AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO

Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) =  33.4 is  1.2 times the sample mean ( 27.9)
Prob of Genesis (t=120h) =  76.9 is  1.9 times the sample mean ( 40.3)

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CONTRIBUTIONS OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY  

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   FCST  %CONT       AVG   FCST  %CONT
CLIM (%)                        27.9                    40.3
HDIV (x10-7s-1)   -1.3    1.4   -7.5      -1.2   -2.1   15.0
DV24 (x10-6s-1)   -0.2   -0.1    0.9      -0.2    0.2   12.4
VSHD (kt)         16.8    8.0    6.7      19.0   16.9    2.6
MLRH (%)          64.9   73.4    0.1      61.3   72.8   -0.3
PCCD (%)          29.1   52.2    3.8      28.7   52.2    4.6
TNUM               0.9    1.0    1.5       0.9    1.0    2.3

%CONT = % contribution to TCGI probability

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

CLIM = Climatological Probability of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
HDIV = 850-mb GFS Horizontal Divergence
DV24 = 24-hr Change in GFS 850-mb Vorticity (VORT)
VSHD = 850-200 mb GFS Vertical Shear
MLRH = 600-mb GFS Relative Humidity
PCCD = % GOES WV Pixels Colder Than -40C
TNUM = TAFB T-Number