* ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX * * AL922015 09/09/15 00 UTC * TIME (hr) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 TCGI (%) 59.2 59.2 HDIV (x10-7s-1) 0.0 -2.0 -3.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 VORT (x10-6s-1) 1.7 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.6 1.2 1.9 1.3 1.3 1.5 0.9 DV24 (x10-6s-1) 0.5 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -1.0 0.3 0.1 -0.6 0.2 -0.4 -0.8 -0.8 VSHD (kt) 21 17 17 17 20 13 7 2 7 16 29 36 38 MLRH (%) 52 49 49 49 47 44 44 56 63 66 64 58 56 PCCD (%) 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TNUM 2.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (deg N) 31.0 31.0 31.1 31.3 31.8 33.3 35.7 38.4 41.3 44.2 46.3 46.6 45.5 LON (deg W) 61.8 61.8 61.8 61.8 62.0 62.5 62.7 62.7 60.5 54.9 47.3 38.1 27.9 DTL (km) 1404 1404 1400 1387 1330 1163 899 613 426 288 441 1120 1479 TRACK SOURCE AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) = 59.2 is 2.1 times the sample mean ( 27.9) Prob of Genesis (t=120h) = 59.2 is 1.5 times the sample mean ( 40.3) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONTRIBUTIONS OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY ******* 48-HR ****** ******* 120-HR ****** AVG FCST %CONT AVG FCST %CONT CLIM (%) 27.9 N/A HDIV (x10-7s-1) -1.3 -1.0 0.0 -1.3 -1.0 0.0 DV24 (x10-6s-1) -0.2 -0.2 0.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.5 VSHD (kt) 16.8 15.1 2.2 16.8 15.1 2.2 MLRH (%) 64.9 46.6 -1.4 64.9 46.6 -1.4 PCCD (%) 29.1 37.3 2.2 29.1 37.3 2.2 TNUM 0.9 2.0 27.7 0.9 2.0 27.7 %CONT = % contribution to TCGI probability --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius) CLIM = Climatological Probability of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) HDIV = 850-mb GFS Horizontal Divergence DV24 = 24-hr Change in GFS 850-mb Vorticity (VORT) VSHD = 850-200 mb GFS Vertical Shear MLRH = 600-mb GFS Relative Humidity PCCD = % GOES WV Pixels Colder Than -40C TNUM = TAFB T-Number