* ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX * * AL912015 09/05/15 12 UTC * TIME (hr) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 TCGI (%) 46.9 46.9 HDIV (x10-7s-1) -2.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 VORT (x10-6s-1) 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.3 1.8 1.3 DV24 (x10-6s-1) -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 -0.6 -1.0 -0.8 -0.3 VSHD (kt) 14 12 11 12 11 3 4 5 10 7 9 11 12 MLRH (%) 80 77 72 78 76 70 69 67 69 70 69 68 66 PCCD (%) 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TNUM 1.50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (deg N) 11.6 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.5 13.8 13.9 14.0 LON (deg W) 24.0 25.0 26.2 27.4 28.8 31.7 34.6 37.2 39.8 42.2 44.5 46.5 48.7 DTL (km) 785 885 1002 1121 1263 1563 1812 1782 1621 1447 1316 1190 1081 TRACK SOURCE AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) = 46.9 is 1.7 times the sample mean ( 27.9) Prob of Genesis (t=120h) = 46.9 is 1.2 times the sample mean ( 40.3) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONTRIBUTIONS OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY ******* 48-HR ****** ******* 120-HR ****** AVG FCST %CONT AVG FCST %CONT CLIM (%) 27.9 N/A HDIV (x10-7s-1) -1.3 1.1 -9.5 -1.3 1.1 -9.5 DV24 (x10-6s-1) -0.2 -0.1 2.8 -0.2 -0.1 2.8 VSHD (kt) 16.8 8.3 9.4 16.8 8.3 9.4 MLRH (%) 64.9 73.9 0.1 64.9 73.9 0.1 PCCD (%) 29.1 41.9 3.0 29.1 41.9 3.0 TNUM 0.9 1.5 13.2 0.9 1.5 13.2 %CONT = % contribution to TCGI probability --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius) CLIM = Climatological Probability of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) HDIV = 850-mb GFS Horizontal Divergence DV24 = 24-hr Change in GFS 850-mb Vorticity (VORT) VSHD = 850-200 mb GFS Vertical Shear MLRH = 600-mb GFS Relative Humidity PCCD = % GOES WV Pixels Colder Than -40C TNUM = TAFB T-Number