*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *           AL912015 09/04/15 18 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
TCGI (%)                                             54.1                                54.1

HDIV (x10-7s-1)  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0   1.0   2.0   6.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0
VORT (x10-6s-1)   2.0   1.9   2.1   2.0   2.0   1.8   2.1   2.3   2.5   2.6   2.9   2.4   2.4
DV24 (x10-6s-1)   0.0   0.1  -0.3   0.2   0.1   0.5   0.4   0.3   0.4  -0.2  -0.5   0.0  -0.3
VSHD (kt)           9     9     7     2     1     2     4     7     9    12    11    18    21
MLRH (%)           80    83    86    82    79    78    74    70    65    65    62    63    56
PCCD (%)           59   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
TNUM             1.00   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

LAT  (deg N)     11.5  11.6  11.9  12.1  12.3  12.6  13.1  13.8  14.0  14.2  14.9  15.1  15.5
LON  (deg W)     20.3  21.4  22.5  23.7  25.2  27.5  29.6  32.6  35.4  37.7  40.1  42.6  44.7
DTL  (km)         388   504   620   734   876  1106  1318  1629  1928  1861  1717  1556  1449
TRACK SOURCE     AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO  AVNO

Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) =  54.1 is  1.9 times the sample mean ( 27.9)
Prob of Genesis (t=120h) =  54.1 is  1.3 times the sample mean ( 40.3)

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CONTRIBUTIONS OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY  

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   FCST  %CONT       AVG   FCST  %CONT
CLIM (%)                        27.9                     N/A
HDIV (x10-7s-1)   -1.3    0.7   -8.4      -1.3    0.7   -8.4
DV24 (x10-6s-1)   -0.2    0.2    8.8      -0.2    0.2    8.8
VSHD (kt)         16.8    4.1   15.9      16.8    4.1   15.9
MLRH (%)          64.9   79.3   -0.4      64.9   79.3   -0.4
PCCD (%)          29.1   58.7    7.9      29.1   58.7    7.9
TNUM               0.9    1.0    2.5       0.9    1.0    2.5

%CONT = % contribution to TCGI probability

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

CLIM = Climatological Probability of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
HDIV = 850-mb GFS Horizontal Divergence
DV24 = 24-hr Change in GFS 850-mb Vorticity (VORT)
VSHD = 850-200 mb GFS Vertical Shear
MLRH = 600-mb GFS Relative Humidity
PCCD = % GOES WV Pixels Colder Than -40C
TNUM = TAFB T-Number