*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *           AL912015 09/04/15 06 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
TCGI (%)                                             36.8                                36.8

HDIV (x10-7s-1)  -5.0  -4.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   6.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   1.0   0.0   1.0
VORT (x10-6s-1)   1.7   1.9   1.7   1.5   1.5   1.8   2.1   1.8   2.2   2.2   1.5   1.3   0.7
DV24 (x10-6s-1)  -0.2  -0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   0.0   0.1   0.4  -0.7  -0.9  -0.8  -1.4  -1.0
VSHD (kt)          17    15    17    16    15     9     7     5     7     7     8     9    12
MLRH (%)           84    85    85    86    86    84    80    81    80    75    75    72    73
PCCD (%)           80   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
TNUM             0.50   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

LAT  (deg N)     10.8  10.8  10.9  10.9  11.0  11.3  11.7  12.3  13.0  13.7  14.4  15.1  15.6
LON  (deg W)     18.1  19.3  20.6  21.8  23.0  25.4  27.6  29.6  31.5  33.3  35.0  36.5  37.8
DTL  (km)         216   317   435   559   683   937  1142  1336  1521  1705  1879  2025  1946
TRACK SOURCE     BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG

Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) =  36.8 is  1.3 times the sample mean ( 27.9)
Prob of Genesis (t=120h) =  36.8 is  0.9 times the sample mean ( 40.3)

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CONTRIBUTIONS OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY  

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   FCST  %CONT       AVG   FCST  %CONT
CLIM (%)                        27.9                     N/A
HDIV (x10-7s-1)   -1.3   -0.6   -1.4      -1.3   -0.6   -1.4
DV24 (x10-6s-1)   -0.2    0.2    5.4      -0.2    0.2    5.4
VSHD (kt)         16.8   12.7    3.2      16.8   12.7    3.2
MLRH (%)          64.9   83.7   -0.6      64.9   83.7   -0.6
PCCD (%)          29.1   80.2    8.4      29.1   80.2    8.4
TNUM               0.9    0.5   -6.1       0.9    0.5   -6.1

%CONT = % contribution to TCGI probability

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

CLIM = Climatological Probability of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
HDIV = 850-mb GFS Horizontal Divergence
DV24 = 24-hr Change in GFS 850-mb Vorticity (VORT)
VSHD = 850-200 mb GFS Vertical Shear
MLRH = 600-mb GFS Relative Humidity
PCCD = % GOES WV Pixels Colder Than -40C
TNUM = TAFB T-Number