*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *           AL982015 08/24/15 18 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
TCGI (%)                                             34.1                                35.9

HDIV (x10-7s-1)   0.0  -3.0  -1.0   2.0   4.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -5.0
VORT (x10-6s-1)   4.0   4.1   4.1   3.6   3.2   3.1   2.9   2.7   2.1   2.1   1.5   1.1   0.6
DV24 (x10-6s-1)  -0.8  -1.1  -1.0  -0.8  -0.3  -0.4  -0.8  -0.6  -0.6  -1.0  -0.9  -0.8  -1.2
VSHD (kt)           8     4     5     6     6     2     8    10    14    26    18    20    19
MLRH (%)           80    80    82    76    72    70    68    67    64    64    64    71    70
PCCD (%)           31   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
TNUM             1.50   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

LAT  (deg N)     14.5  14.8  14.9  15.0  15.2  15.7  16.3  16.9  17.4  18.0  18.7  19.2  19.9
LON  (deg W)     45.5  47.5  49.4  51.2  52.9  56.2  59.6  63.2  66.7  70.2  73.2  75.8  78.5
DTL  (km)        1308  1218  1139  1077  1004   752   629   307    56    29    38    73    87
TRACK SOURCE     AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG

Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) =  34.1 is  1.2 times the sample mean ( 27.9)
Prob of Genesis (t=120h) =  35.9 is  0.9 times the sample mean ( 40.3)

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CONTRIBUTIONS OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY  

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   FCST  %CONT       AVG   FCST  %CONT
CLIM (%)                        27.9                    40.3
HDIV (x10-7s-1)   -1.3    0.7   -5.1      -1.2   -0.1   -9.1
DV24 (x10-6s-1)   -0.2   -0.7   -6.4      -0.2   -0.7  -12.6
VSHD (kt)         16.8    5.7    8.5      19.0   12.3    6.1
MLRH (%)          64.9   74.1    0.1      61.3   69.5    0.3
PCCD (%)          29.1   30.7    0.3      28.7   30.7    0.3
TNUM               0.9    1.5    9.0       0.9    1.5   10.8

%CONT = % contribution to TCGI probability

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

CLIM = Climatological Probability of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
HDIV = 850-mb GFS Horizontal Divergence
DV24 = 24-hr Change in GFS 850-mb Vorticity (VORT)
VSHD = 850-200 mb GFS Vertical Shear
MLRH = 600-mb GFS Relative Humidity
PCCD = % GOES WV Pixels Colder Than -40C
TNUM = TAFB T-Number