*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *           AL982015 08/24/15 12 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
TCGI (%)                                             40.0                                44.0

HDIV (x10-7s-1)   1.0   1.0  -1.0  -2.0   1.0   4.0  -1.0   1.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0  -3.0  -1.0
VORT (x10-6s-1)   3.8   3.8   3.9   4.0   3.8   3.0   3.1   2.6   2.7   2.1   1.8   1.4   0.9
DV24 (x10-6s-1)   0.0  -0.3  -0.9  -1.0  -0.7  -0.4  -0.4  -0.5  -0.9  -0.7  -0.9  -0.7  -0.7
VSHD (kt)          13    12    12    11    14     8    12    11    13    17    23    21    20
MLRH (%)           80    81    84    84    80    70    75    69    74    68    71    74    75
PCCD (%)           31   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
TNUM             2.00   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

LAT  (deg N)     14.0  14.3  14.4  14.5  14.6  15.1  15.6  16.0  16.5  17.5  18.3  19.1  19.8
LON  (deg W)     42.6  44.5  46.5  48.5  50.3  53.9  57.4  61.0  64.5  67.9  70.9  73.4  76.1
DTL  (km)        1461  1359  1236  1141  1068   905   660   560   223    92     7    66     6
TRACK SOURCE     AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG

Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) =  40.0 is  1.4 times the sample mean ( 27.9)
Prob of Genesis (t=120h) =  44.0 is  1.1 times the sample mean ( 40.3)

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CONTRIBUTIONS OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY  

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   FCST  %CONT       AVG   FCST  %CONT
CLIM (%)                        27.9                    40.3
HDIV (x10-7s-1)   -1.3    1.0   -7.3      -1.2    0.0   -9.6
DV24 (x10-6s-1)   -0.2   -0.5   -5.4      -0.2   -0.6  -10.3
VSHD (kt)         16.8   11.3    5.0      19.0   14.7    3.9
MLRH (%)          64.9   78.1   -0.2      61.3   74.5   -0.5
PCCD (%)          29.1   31.2    0.4      28.7   31.2    0.4
TNUM               0.9    2.0   19.7       0.9    2.0   19.8

%CONT = % contribution to TCGI probability

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

CLIM = Climatological Probability of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
HDIV = 850-mb GFS Horizontal Divergence
DV24 = 24-hr Change in GFS 850-mb Vorticity (VORT)
VSHD = 850-200 mb GFS Vertical Shear
MLRH = 600-mb GFS Relative Humidity
PCCD = % GOES WV Pixels Colder Than -40C
TNUM = TAFB T-Number