* ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX * * AL942015 07/31/15 12 UTC * TIME (hr) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 TCGI (%) 28.8 40.4 HDIV (x10-7s-1) 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 -1.0 3.0 1.0 -1.0 -3.0 -2.0 VORT (x10-6s-1) 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 DV24 (x10-6s-1) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.3 -0.6 -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 VSHD (kt) 10 13 12 9 8 11 13 16 7 4 12 10 7 MLRH (%) 76 73 73 74 71 68 70 70 75 72 75 73 72 PCCD (%) 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TNUM 1.50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (deg N) 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.3 11.7 11.2 10.0 9.2 9.2 9.8 10.4 10.9 LON (deg W) 33.4 34.6 35.9 37.0 38.3 41.1 43.5 45.1 46.0 47.8 49.6 51.1 52.6 DTL (km) 1742 1781 1738 1721 1686 1399 1165 947 815 690 620 611 594 TRACK SOURCE AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO AVNO BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) = 28.8 is 1.0 times the sample mean ( 27.9) Prob of Genesis (t=120h) = 40.4 is 1.0 times the sample mean ( 40.3) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONTRIBUTIONS OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY ******* 48-HR ****** ******* 120-HR ****** AVG FCST %CONT AVG FCST %CONT CLIM (%) 27.9 40.3 HDIV (x10-7s-1) -1.3 0.9 -5.8 -1.2 0.2 -12.5 DV24 (x10-6s-1) -0.2 -0.6 -6.1 -0.2 -0.4 -5.2 VSHD (kt) 16.8 11.1 4.3 19.0 10.3 7.8 MLRH (%) 64.9 71.7 0.2 61.3 72.4 -0.2 PCCD (%) 29.1 24.8 -0.7 28.7 24.8 -0.6 TNUM 0.9 1.5 9.0 0.9 1.5 10.8 %CONT = % contribution to TCGI probability --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius) CLIM = Climatological Probability of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) HDIV = 850-mb GFS Horizontal Divergence DV24 = 24-hr Change in GFS 850-mb Vorticity (VORT) VSHD = 850-200 mb GFS Vertical Shear MLRH = 600-mb GFS Relative Humidity PCCD = % GOES WV Pixels Colder Than -40C TNUM = TAFB T-Number