*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *           AL942015 07/31/15 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
TCGI (%)                                             30.4                                43.5

HDIV (x10-7s-1)   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0   1.0  -3.0   1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0
VORT (x10-6s-1)   1.8   1.5   1.3   1.2   1.2   1.2   1.1   0.8   0.7   0.5   0.4   0.4   0.3
DV24 (x10-6s-1)  -0.6  -0.2  -0.1   0.0  -0.1  -0.4  -0.4  -0.3  -0.3  -0.1  -0.1   0.0   0.5
VSHD (kt)          15    14    12    12    10    10    12    15    20     8     3    10    14
MLRH (%)           82    81    78    75    76    73    71    71    68    73    77    80    84
PCCD (%)           51   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
TNUM             1.00   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

LAT  (deg N)     11.9  12.0  12.0  12.0  11.9  11.4  10.7   9.9   9.0   8.7   9.3  10.1  10.9
LON  (deg W)     29.5  30.7  31.9  33.0  34.1  36.4  38.5  40.2  41.5  42.4  43.1  43.9  44.6
DTL  (km)        1336  1460  1587  1704  1769  1638  1520  1369  1197  1094  1064  1050  1058
TRACK SOURCE     AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI  AVNI

Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) =  30.4 is  1.1 times the sample mean ( 27.9)
Prob of Genesis (t=120h) =  43.5 is  1.1 times the sample mean ( 40.3)

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CONTRIBUTIONS OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY  

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   FCST  %CONT       AVG   FCST  %CONT
CLIM (%)                        27.9                    40.3
HDIV (x10-7s-1)   -1.3    0.7   -5.1      -1.2   -0.1   -8.6
DV24 (x10-6s-1)   -0.2   -0.3   -1.3      -0.2   -0.2    0.7
VSHD (kt)         16.8   11.7    3.9      19.0   11.6    6.6
MLRH (%)          64.9   75.8    0.0      61.3   75.5   -0.7
PCCD (%)          29.1   50.7    3.5      28.7   50.7    3.3
TNUM               0.9    1.0    1.5       0.9    1.0    1.8

%CONT = % contribution to TCGI probability

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

CLIM = Climatological Probability of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
HDIV = 850-mb GFS Horizontal Divergence
DV24 = 24-hr Change in GFS 850-mb Vorticity (VORT)
VSHD = 850-200 mb GFS Vertical Shear
MLRH = 600-mb GFS Relative Humidity
PCCD = % GOES WV Pixels Colder Than -40C
TNUM = TAFB T-Number