* ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX * * AL942015 07/30/15 18 UTC * TIME (hr) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 TCGI (%) 27.3 53.9 HDIV (x10-7s-1) 1.0 2.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -2.0 -5.0 -5.0 -4.0 -1.0 VORT (x10-6s-1) 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 DV24 (x10-6s-1) -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 VSHD (kt) 15 14 15 14 13 6 10 9 12 11 12 10 5 MLRH (%) 79 80 83 82 79 78 76 78 78 80 80 81 80 PCCD (%) 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TNUM 1.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (deg N) 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.0 11.7 11.1 10.4 10.0 10.1 11.0 12.4 13.3 LON (deg W) 27.8 28.9 29.8 30.8 31.7 33.3 34.4 35.0 35.5 36.0 36.8 37.7 38.5 DTL (km) 1152 1265 1360 1465 1566 1743 1674 1578 1517 1511 1584 1719 1732 TRACK SOURCE AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) = 27.3 is 1.0 times the sample mean ( 27.9) Prob of Genesis (t=120h) = 53.9 is 1.3 times the sample mean ( 40.3) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONTRIBUTIONS OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY ******* 48-HR ****** ******* 120-HR ****** AVG FCST %CONT AVG FCST %CONT CLIM (%) 27.9 40.3 HDIV (x10-7s-1) -1.3 0.4 -4.5 -1.2 -1.5 5.8 DV24 (x10-6s-1) -0.2 -0.5 -3.9 -0.2 -0.3 -3.7 VSHD (kt) 16.8 11.8 3.8 19.0 10.9 8.0 MLRH (%) 64.9 79.2 -0.3 61.3 79.2 -1.4 PCCD (%) 29.1 45.9 2.7 28.7 45.9 2.9 TNUM 0.9 1.0 1.5 0.9 1.0 2.0 %CONT = % contribution to TCGI probability --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius) CLIM = Climatological Probability of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) HDIV = 850-mb GFS Horizontal Divergence DV24 = 24-hr Change in GFS 850-mb Vorticity (VORT) VSHD = 850-200 mb GFS Vertical Shear MLRH = 600-mb GFS Relative Humidity PCCD = % GOES WV Pixels Colder Than -40C TNUM = TAFB T-Number