*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *           AL942015 07/30/15 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
TCGI (%)                                             44.0                                54.9

HDIV (x10-7s-1)   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0   2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -5.0   1.0   0.0   1.0
VORT (x10-6s-1)   1.6   1.8   1.9   2.0   2.3   2.2   2.1   1.8   1.2   1.4   1.2   1.0   1.1
DV24 (x10-6s-1)   0.7   0.4   0.3   0.2  -0.2  -0.4  -0.9  -0.4   0.0  -0.4  -0.1  -0.1  -0.3
VSHD (kt)          13    13    16    14     8     7     8     9     9     8     7     5     9
MLRH (%)           80    79    79    80    80    77    75    74    78    78    77    73    73
PCCD (%)           68   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
TNUM             1.00   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

LAT  (deg N)     12.2  12.3  12.4  12.5  12.5  12.7  12.9  12.8  12.7  12.9  13.9  15.3  16.8
LON  (deg W)     23.6  24.6  25.7  26.6  27.5  29.3  30.5  31.1  31.2  31.5  32.2  33.5  35.0
DTL  (km)         720   821   923  1018  1114  1296  1415  1484  1497  1522  1583  1719  1880
TRACK SOURCE     BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG

Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) =  44.0 is  1.6 times the sample mean ( 27.9)
Prob of Genesis (t=120h) =  54.9 is  1.4 times the sample mean ( 40.3)

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CONTRIBUTIONS OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY  

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   FCST  %CONT       AVG   FCST  %CONT
CLIM (%)                        27.9                    40.3
HDIV (x10-7s-1)   -1.3   -0.3   -2.8      -1.2   -0.7   -3.8
DV24 (x10-6s-1)   -0.2   -0.1    1.9      -0.2   -0.2    0.4
VSHD (kt)         16.8   10.5    6.5      19.0    9.0   10.1
MLRH (%)          64.9   78.2   -0.3      61.3   76.6   -1.0
PCCD (%)          29.1   68.2    8.7      28.7   68.2    6.8
TNUM               0.9    1.0    2.0       0.9    1.0    2.0

%CONT = % contribution to TCGI probability

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

CLIM = Climatological Probability of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
HDIV = 850-mb GFS Horizontal Divergence
DV24 = 24-hr Change in GFS 850-mb Vorticity (VORT)
VSHD = 850-200 mb GFS Vertical Shear
MLRH = 600-mb GFS Relative Humidity
PCCD = % GOES WV Pixels Colder Than -40C
TNUM = TAFB T-Number